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Nothing would be the same after February The regime had officially stepped on the slippery slope of open violence, and legal disregard. But such a display of force was obviously a sign of deep weakness and insecurity.

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Within a single week end, duly warned, three justices from the Electoral High Court section surprised the Constitutional Court and sent crashing down the trap set up since August !

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Is this a way of recognizing that the Electoral High Court decision is indeed final? Or do they just need more time to play their last card?

Because that is where we are now, the last card from both sides. Indeed the situation is very grave. Playing the judicial card of one High Court section against another high court section implies a constitutional crisis of major proportion.

The Venezuelan High Court system is formed of six courts with specific attributes, and only in some cases the 20 justices sit down together.

Hearing chavista lawyers this morning on television was listening to arguments as to why the 5 Constitutional Court members could actually rule over the 20 justices.

That is, they would have the Constitutional Court take over the Venezuelan judicial system. I have read the constitutional articles tonight, and though not a lawyer I could clearly sense that objective and the irreversible bending of the constitution.

Any support that any of the other branches of the government would bring to such a scheme would make them partners in constitutional violation, and aggravate the crisis.

I think that we are reaching the end of the rope. The Chavez administration is engaged in a constitutional violation path. Whether it will get away with it is another matter, but the consequences for both sides are tremendous.

They could range from the establishment of a "legal" authoritarian regime Peru's Fujimori style, to pure and simple dictatorship. If Chavez prevails.

And if Chavez fails, the resulting crisis could go from voiding of the constitution requiring again another lengthy constitutional process to just plain civil war.

Chavez has demonstrated time and again that a few violations of the constitution did not take from his sleep.

This is the big one he has been preparing himself for, since late when he decided politically that he had to liquidate any vestige of the old political order, regardless of its faults or virtues.

I am convinced that he is ready and willing. He is a soldier. Whoever opposes him is an enemy. The only question left for him is how many people are going to accompany him.

Tuesday, March 16, Venezuelan institutional chaos? Venezuela loss of morality? Tuesday 16, March The readers of this blog by now must have a pretty good idea of the answers to the questions in the title.

And today's even give pretty good examples on how low institutions have fallen, or are about to fall. Since It has been a busy day for me, I will only give you now a few links and comments and try to write an explanation summary at home tonight.

Now, not really in chronological order. The Electoral Board, CNE, speaks in two voices. The two directors that more regularly speak to the press were out today.

The chavista Rodriguez, with a rather puffed face medication? And the CNE would do so. Later on the opposition representative they should all be impartial but that has been lost long time ago , Zamora, particularly gaunt, came out to state that the ruling could not be appealed.

He also took the opportunity to say that Rodriguez has "not stated the truth" about some of his declarations towards himself. They have a board meeting this afternoon.

Would be nice to be the fly on the wall. Asked about the recent declarations of organizations such as Human Rights Watch and the Inter-American Press Society about the violations of human rights in Venezuela, he said those statements are "bureaucratic and have a price.

It has become a propaganda war and he knows it you can read my series on El Petarazo to have examples on how the man operates.

Of course one could ask him why is there anelectorall Court if all eelctroral matters should go to the Constitutional court or the CNE?

But we know the answer: matters of importance only go to the courts that are on the government side. But theoppositionn was not staying put. Previewing a windfall of law suits, it already asked three justices of the Constitutional court to inhibit themselves from ruling on these matters as they have shown their partiality.

In the Venezuelan system judges and assembly men have a "second" that steps in when the principal cannot be there, a clever ploy to increase bureaucracy.

As chavismo is also inhibiting whomever they can. I wonder if there is going to be ANY judge left to hear the cases And at a press conference the opposition spokes people had a hard face and the sternest tone.

Harder and harsher than usual, appropriate for the crucial hours that we are living. Very "helpfully" chavismo had its own rally in front of the High Court.

If the rally was not too well attended, it was full ofincendiaryy words, with an assemblyman, Dario Vivas, accusing the judges to have accepted bribes.

As usual no proofs whatsoever were offered. I suppose that since they are buying whomever they need to buy they assume that the other side operates the same way.

Finally the third justice in the Electoral Court criticized vehemently his colleagues. Apparently he was at work but they claim he was not, which would explain why he was not there and why they used his substitute.

Maybe be true, but if he was not so busy talking and plotting with Chavez agents he might have caught on. However the story does not say whether he put an official complaint.

Talk is cheap in chavismo. A judicial ping pong game in Venezuela: has the electoral fraud blown up Chavez 's nose? More on today's events As I try to make sense of the events of these past days I have been reminded of a famous day in French history, during the minority of one of the King Louis.

Indeed last Friday one judicial branch went off on week end thinking that it had blocked the other one. Only to find today that the blocked branch swung back and smashed the previous attempt.

Actually the smash today was so convincing that I wonder if the other branch did not on purpose sabotage its action, to try to pretend to please Chavez while sinking him.

That or they are incompetent and overplayed their hand. All is possible in Venezuela. The judicial system as of has a supreme court, TSJ, composed of 20 members divided in equal chambers.

One chamber is formed by 5 judges and takes on constitutional matters. Its ruling must be taken AT LEAST 3 to 1. In other words 4 judges must attend the seance.

Last Friday only three judges emitted a ruling that forbade the chamber dealing on electoral matters to rule on appeals deposed in front of it.

That Electoral Chamber is formed by three judges and its decisions must be taken 2 to 1. The Electoral Chamber today decided to rule anyway declaring that what the Constitutional Chamber sent them last week was illegal.

And rule they did. They canceled many of the provisions taken by the Electoral Board CNE, making in fact the Recall Election all but certain.

All the petty measures painfully taken by the CNE to diminish the total signatures collected, all the post-act modifications of the rules to that effect, all the sloppy work, all the delays and treacheries were declared void and the CNE was told to move on with the Recall Election process.

It remains that chavismo has to find a way to cancel at least signatures out of 1 contested signatures by the end of March to legally stop the Recall Election.

Any other way will be illegal. That is the extent of the alleged "megafraud" that Chavez had been trumpeting all along. Now he has to prove it or desist.

Here are the appropriate links for you to check details, a I have simplified the tale and rounded numbers.

The story, in English, in El Universal The ruling by the Electoral Chamber The story in Spanish The two Chambers telling each other that they lied The satisfaction of the opposition with the ruling The suspension of tomorrow's march of the opposition , as requested by the Carter Center and the OAS to avoid unnecessary provocation But in case you still think that Chavez was playing fair play.

We were greeted today with two piece of news that show the coercion used by the administration. This while the Constitutional Chamber was trying to knock out the Electoral Chamber.

The comptroller General, long silent, the guys supposed to pursue all corruption cases suddenly woke up. For what?

To find fault with potential popular opposition candidates and try to stop them from running in the local elections planned for later this year.

Of course all pro Chavez candidates are models of honesty. Story in English by the way. In addition a couple of hundred of workers from Caracas subway are threatened with being fired because they signed for the Recall Election , something seen in other state industries and offices!

Meaning of course that the government is going to try to have them recant their signatures. I would not be ready to dismiss Chavez's chances to stop the recall election, yet.

Certainly he seems to have received a very hard knock today, but he surely has a few judicial tricks.

I use the word "tricks" as I am rather convinced that the next moves of Chavez are now outside the legal path. They might apparent legality but they will be taken in the frame of a confrontation of powers, and he has the guns and the money, two natural factors that make their holders think that they can get away with it.

Not to mention that one thing he does not have, scruples. I posted it yesterday and you might need to return to it in the coming days to understand the new developments.

Monday, March 15, A surprise announcement on the recall election against Chavez in Venezuela Breaking news! Monday 15, March In a very unsettling move for the Chavez camp that thought it had the upper hand in the Venezuelan High Court, TSJ, one of its sections, the Sala Electoral, decided to invalidate some of the very contested decisions taken by the Electoral Board, CNE.

Indeed, the TSJ is composed of 20 members divided into several sections, one is the Sala Electoral , and another one is the Sala Constitucional which, as its name indicate, deals with constitutional rights.

When one of the sections ruling is appealed on solid grounds, the 20 judges decide as a last resort. The Sala Constitucional is formed by 5 judges, 3 of them devoted to the Chavez cause.

In the last few days they have tried to hijack the decision on appeals presented by the opposition from the Sala Electoral by means of a rather dubious legality.

But today the Sala Electoral , probably not amused by the coarse usurpation attempts, ruled that the trashing of signatures was not right and these people should be allowed to "correct" or "ratify" their signatures.

But even more damming, taking up the arguments advanced by the Carter Center and the OAS, they decided that the good intention should prevail in the signatures put under observation.

This means that instead of forcing people to go and ratify, the ID numbers should be published and those that do not agree being in that list should be the ones going and denounce the fraud to which their name was subjected.

As it should be. It is very unlikely that the chavista camp will be able to demonstrate that several hundred thousand of people in the K lot did not sign.

And even if they manage to get a few thousand to "change their minds", the opposition should get enough of the K lot to compensate.

The math is quite simple 2. A daunting task at the very least. Unless of course Chavez was right in the " megafraude ", for which we are still waiting for the hard evidence.

Now there is his golden chance to prove that he was right all along as hundred of thousand of people will clog the streets to have their name removed and finally uncover the fraudulent opposition.

Now, on to Chavez next move, and it will probably not be a pretty one Nothing in English yet. I will write more tonight as I learn all the details and figure out whether I understood correctly all the legalese involved earlier on.

One thing is certain, Bernal the spokesperson of chavismo today they seem to take turns , was almost foaming at the mouth.

It must have hurt. Note added even later : Ismael Garcia, quite unhinged, is calling for chavistas to go tomorrow to the High Court to ask for the removal of the "bastard" judges that betrayed the people, going even as far as accusing them to get money for that decision.

More tonight. Sunday, March 14, A summary table on the Venezuelan political situation Sunday 14, March I have been postponing for a few days an analysis of the situation.

Indeed the speed at which events move forward, in particular the breathtaking judicial cheating taking place in the high court makes any analysis run the risk of becoming outdated by the time it is posted.

I decided instead to create a table where I list the advantages and disadvantages of each camp at this time. These of course can and will change too, but they will remain basically true for the weeks to come.

Any movement made by the political antagonists is based on what they have in their cards. I hope that from reading both tables, it will be clear that no side has really the upper hand.

Not Chavez in spite of his heavy display of force since February Nor the opposition that can only benefit from the good will of the international observers and that could be helped as well as harmed if for example the OAS decided to apply sanctions.

It is a very complicated and dangerous game. This allows him to control tightly his followers, no dissension within the ranks.

Last dissenters have left early Has few genuine feedback, mostly from people interested in keeping their jobs, or cashing in their positions while the going is good.

Implies relying on corruption to buy fidelity. His will applies. A lot of subservient people implement whatever is needed until Chavez forgets about it and then the program sinks into oblivion.

This causes a rudderless administration, only worried about day to day survival. Controls the Nation's institutions. National Assembly reduced to a rubber stamp body, with an intractable opposition.

Justice rulings tend to favor the administration. Investigative bodies unwilling to deal with corruption. No serious counterweight besides the press.

This has become obvious as the function of the state machinery has become the defense of the " Bolivarian project", costing international support.

In particular the control over the electoral board and the judicial system is now for all to see, casting serious doubts about the possibility of any real and fair election in the future.

The preoccupation of the judicial with the preservation of the regime causes an impressive backlog in other areas of people's security.

Crime keeps on the increase, fueled by the economical recession and the careless judiciary and penal system.

On the armed forces front Neutralized the Army. If he is sure that the Army will not rise against him, he is still not sure it will accompany him all the way in the road of repression.

Controls the National Guard, allowing him the recent and effective repression. Major tarnish to his international image as the defender of Human Rights has been transformed into your average repressor.

Might have doomed the National Guard in a post Chavez administration, or at least the serving personnel. On the economical front Control of the State Oil company, PDVSA, which acts directly as the petty cash of the Bolivarian project.

The financial needs of the company are neglected. Necessary investments in oil well recuperation and new exploration are not met.

The national production has shrunk and a pre strike level cannot be reached unless massive private investment is allowed. This will result in a slow but sure privatization of the oil production.

Free spending policies, unchecked by the national assembly, the Central Bank or the Office of the Comptroller. Bed seed of corruption, never prosecuted in spite of mounting visible evidence.

Runaway spending, increasing debt, fiscal fragility, currency depreciation, a time bomb, probably short term. Ability to launch all sorts of popular and populists programs, little bit more than a give-away to shore up the electoral base.

If the effects are positive in the polls, their very unsustainable nature and the continuous shrinking of available resources makes these programs less and less effective and more and more difficult to launch.

Eventually people will realize the fraud as no matter how many programs are launched few, if any, benefits reach them. Losing a recall election is the worst possible case scenario for Chavez.

A politician can recover from losing a presidential election, a politician cannot recover from a recall election that is a direct sanction on the actions of the politician.

Having hastily promoted the recall election in January to put an end to the strike, Chavez is now trapped and must resort to extreme measures to avoid the referendum.

This is what we are seeing now, from judicial treachery, to repression. All great dangers for the country, and the opposition.

On the national scene The opposition has strong local leadership. Increases the centralization of the government which deliberately starves of resources the local communities that do not support its project.

The effect on a future fair election is open to question. It has a fervent following that really think that with Chavez the democratic values of the country have no future.

This fills the streets that Chavez cannot fill as easily and at great expense. Sometimes the crowds, becoming more and more exacerbated with the inability to make any headway in removing Chavez from office, are difficult to control.

This creates delicate situations such as the long stay of the dissident military on Plaza Altamira or the spontaneous recent street rioting.

The opposition is an eclectic group, vital in ideas and democratic aspirations. It rallies solidly the largest part of the population that want real solutions and not the will of a single man.

The lack of a clear front runner, or a coherent organization able to propose real post Chavez programs is seen by some sectors as a weakness that pushes some of these sectors to indifference or back into the arms of Chavez.

On the economical front No advantage besides the press. Must husband its resources carefully as Chavez has free access tot he treasury.

The sensitivity of most the media to the authoritarian temptation of the power makes the media give as much support as possible to the opposition, opening both to charges of unfairness by those that do not understand the real workings of the Chavez project.

Stimulates a constant war of cadenas. Costing money to the media, and more money to counteract the free TV exposure of Chavez.

Fervent following. Offers uncounted numbers of volunteers for all the logistics required to mount an effective political challenge.

Makes the power nervous. Stimulates all sorts of accusations such as US funding, SUMATE conspiracy, eta While the government dips freely into PDVSA funds.

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